Slow and stable. That’s how the Monticello School District’s director of business services described the enrollment figures of the school district the past five years.
Total enrollment growth for the past five years is -1 student, or zero percent, Tina Burkholder told members of the Monticello School Board on Monday, Nov. 16.
But it appears slow and stable might be giving way to a decline in student enrollment, Burkholder predicted.
Monticello’s enrollment is projected to decrease over the next three to five years with smaller class sizes entering kindergarten and larger class sizes exiting the high school, Burkholder said based on data she collected.
What’s that bode for the future?
As of October 1, enrollment was down 107 students over last year’s enrollment figures. That’s a 2.53 percent decline.
Enrollment models for the next five years suggest annual enrollment declines, with enrollment estimated to dip below 4,000 students in the 2025-26 school year, when an enrollment of 3,984 is projected.
To reach that projection, Burkholder examined many different scenarios by utilizing enrollment projection models. The enrollment projections shape district budgeting and policy decisions in the coming years.
Among resources used by Burkholder to make the enrollment projections were: housing market, economic conditions, Wright County births, census population, and open enrollment figures.
The projections also show that all of the school district buildings will have student populations below the occupancy limits for those buildings.
School board members had no comments on the enrollment projections and had no questions for Burkholder regarding the figures.